This is my second round with Bitcoin. I first took a position in 2016 when the price was around $1,000 per coin, which I bought via a digital wallet. I didn’t hold a deep conviction then—but I had a hunch. A hunch based on first-principles research into how Bitcoin works, what it represents, and the implications of digital scarcity. I used a digital wallet for custody and later leveraged Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to increase my exposure. I sold out in December 2017 when Bitcoin approached $12,000—not because of a failed investment thesis, but because it appeared that the primary use case at the time was for illicit trade. I didn’t want to be associated with that narrative.
Fast forward to today, and I’ve re-entered—not through self-custody, but via the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), a regulated, Bitcoin-only fund. My exposure here is modest—an initial $3,000 “toe-in-the-water” position—but this is how I build conviction: slowly, with skin in the game.
2. The Spark: Andrew Page’s Conviction
What drew me back to Bitcoin wasn’t hype. It was hearing Andrew Page from Strawman.com articulate his view of Bitcoin as a future mechanism for international trade settlement—particularly for regions or sovereigns seeking alternatives to U.S. dollar hegemony. His conviction was clear. I respected it—even if I didn’t share it fully. As Page wisely noted, “You can borrow someone’s idea, but you can’t buy their conviction.” Still, his framing rekindled my interest.
3. My Investigative Process
I revisited Bitcoin’s underlying principles and current data. I looked at institutional adoption trends, read recent market commentary, and monitored the development of Layer 2 protocols like the Lightning Network—which enable faster, low-cost transactions. I reviewed metrics on transaction types and data showing that the percentage of Bitcoin activity associated with criminal usage has declined dramatically. Today, more settlements are happening above board, and Bitcoin is finding product-market fit with legal, institutional actors.
4. What I Like & My Evolving Thesis
Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins—of which fewer than 18 million are realistically accessible due to lost keys and wallets—creates a digital scarcity unmatched in the fiat world. That scarcity gives it gold-like qualities, but in a format natively digital and borderless.
What appeals to me now is not just the inflation hedge narrative—but the emerging utility: cross-border transactions, settlement rails, and programmable value exchange. We’re witnessing Bitcoin shift from a speculative asset to digital infrastructure. Think of it like TCP/IP for value—not just a store of wealth but a foundational layer in the global economy.
5. Role in My Portfolio
This investment sits in my G3 Fund – Transformational Technology. It’s not about immediate gains; it’s about asymmetric optionality. IBIT allows me to gain exposure without the custody risk or regulatory uncertainty of managing coins directly. It also provides liquidity and simplicity—two characteristics I value for early-stage positions.
6. Leadership – BlackRock’s Involvement
BlackRock’s decision to enter the space changes the game. As the world’s largest asset manager, they don’t make casual moves. Their involvement lends institutional legitimacy, regulatory rigor, and a long-term horizon. I may not be bullish on every BlackRock product, but IBIT benefits from serious stewardship and operational credibility.
7. Public Company Experience
BlackRock’s track record as a fiduciary and ETF pioneer gives me confidence. They understand liquidity management, compliance, and fund structuring better than most. I’m not relying on a startup custodian here—this is as blue-chip as it gets for crypto exposure.
8. Performance Against My Preferred Metrics
This investment doesn’t qualify for a “Rule of 40” assessment, given it’s a passive asset, not an operating company. However, I track:
- Tracking Error to spot performance divergence from spot BTC
- Liquidity and AUM growth (which has been strong since launch)
- Regulatory acceptance and institutional flows
So far, IBIT has performed exactly as expected: low-fee, direct, no drama.
9. What I’m Watching For
I’m watching for:
- Broader sovereign and institutional adoption
- Growth of Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions like Lightning
- Macro signals that hint at de-dollarisation trends
- Declining volatility and increasing use in legal settlement
If these trends continue, I will likely scale in with larger tranches over time.
10. What Would Break My Thesis (The Antithesis)
My position is not without risks. What would cause me to reverse or exit?
- Regulatory crackdown that removes Bitcoin’s utility layer
- Evidence of irreparable security flaws or protocol breakdowns
- A failure to scale transaction throughput and utility
- Re-emergence of illicit finance as the dominant use case
For now, none of those risk flags are active—but they remain top of mind.
Final Reflection
This journal entry is more than just a snapshot of an investment. It’s a live case study in asymmetric thinking, optionality, and conviction-building. My kids may one day ask why I placed a small bet on a strange internet coin. This is the answer: I believed it had the potential to reshape value transfer globally—and I wanted skin in the game to learn in real time.
