Endurance as a Predictor of Longevity
“If a book is still in print after 40 years, there’s a good chance it will still be read in another 40.”
— Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Lindy Effect
📌 Introduction: What is the Lindy Effect?
In the realm of strategic thinking, understanding what endures is just as valuable as knowing what changes. The Lindy Effect is a mental model that helps decision-makers predict the durability of an idea, institution, technology, or practice based not on how new it is—but how long it has already lasted.
Originating from a joke among comedians in New York’s Lindy’s Deli, the concept was popularized by Nassim Taleb to describe non-perishable things—like books, ideas, technologies, and philosophies—whose expected remaining lifespan increases the longer they’ve already been around. If something has lasted 100 years, we can expect it to last another 100.
In systems and strategy, the Lindy Effect prompts a key insight: that which has stood the test of time deserves more strategic weight than the seductive glitter of the new.
🔁 The Strategic Relevance of the Lindy Effect
Let’s apply this thinking to a few real-world contexts:
1. Enduring Business Models
Industries like insurance, toll roads, and consumer staples have withstood centuries of disruption. The core logic behind them is Lindy: a proven way to create and capture value across generations.
Strategic takeaway: Don’t just ask what’s new—ask what’s timeless.
2. Technology Adoption
The Lindy Effect doesn’t dismiss innovation—but it does advise skepticism toward hyped novelties. Protocols like TCP/IP (from the 1970s) or programming languages like C have been around for decades. Their persistence signals robustness.
Strategic takeaway: Bet more confidently on tech that has already stood the test of time.
3. Cultural Norms and Institutions
Religions, legal traditions, and even forms of governance that have lasted centuries encode deep survival information. They may look inefficient to modern eyes—but Lindy warns against discarding them lightly.
Strategic takeaway: Look at the time-tested architecture of institutions when designing your own.
🧠 Systems Implication: Survival Is a Filter
In systems thinking, the Lindy Effect introduces a filtering mechanism: only systems that are resilient to shocks and change survive long periods. Their longevity becomes a proxy for robustness and antifragility.
Think of the Lindy Effect as a meta-feedback loop: the more time-tested a component is, the more it deserves to remain in the system design—unless we have strong, evidence-based reasons to replace it.
If a principle has lasted for generations, it’s likely because it solved a recurrent, systemic problem. Don’t be quick to innovate where tradition has wisdom.
💼 Application for Executives and Strategists
Here’s how to apply the Lindy Effect to decision-making:
| Strategic Domain | Lindy-Based Insight |
|---|---|
| Hiring & Leadership | Favor candidates who demonstrate timeless virtues—integrity, grit, clarity—not just trendy skills. |
| Product Strategy | Prioritize solving enduring customer problems over chasing fads. |
| Investment | Invest in businesses with long, proven histories and durable advantages. |
| Policy and Governance | Resist replacing long-standing rules or cultural norms without deep understanding. |
| Content Creation | Write or build things that can be useful 10 years from now. Aim for “evergreen value.” |
🧭 A Word of Caution: Lindy ≠ Stagnation
While the Lindy Effect honors what has lasted, it doesn’t imply blind conservatism. Strategic wisdom is in distinguishing what is enduring versus what is outdated.
Lindy helps us:
- Separate signal from noise in an age of constant innovation.
- Preserve institutional knowledge before replacing legacy systems.
- Identify what’s worth doubling down on over the long term.
🏁 Closing Reflection: Design for Endurance
In your strategic planning sessions, ask:
- “What here is Lindy?”
- “What has stood the test of time and should be protected?”
- “What are we too quick to discard?”
The Lindy Effect reframes our obsession with novelty and reminds us that durability is often a better predictor of future value than disruption. A strategic mind anchored in this model balances innovation with reverence for the enduring.
Missed out on the over all series?
Murray Slatter
Strategy, Growth, and Transformation Consultant: Book time to meet with me here!
