How to Guard Against Seeing Only What You Want to See
In the intricate world of executive decision-making, one of the most seductive mental traps is confirmation bias—our innate tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms our pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. It’s a silent saboteur that often masquerades as conviction, reinforcing our sense of certainty while quietly eroding our objectivity.
For leaders, the cost of unchecked confirmation bias is high: strategic missteps, flawed hiring decisions, missed market signals, and a culture that punishes dissent instead of rewarding critical thought.
What Is Confirmation Bias?
Confirmation bias is a cognitive shortcut. Instead of objectively analyzing all available data, our brains filter incoming information through the lens of what we already believe. We:
- Seek out evidence that supports our views.
- Discount or ignore contradictory information.
- Interpret ambiguous information in a way that aligns with our prior expectations.
It affects everyone—from investment analysts and startup founders to policymakers and pastors. The smarter and more successful you are, the more dangerous it becomes—because your mind becomes even more efficient at finding “evidence” to support your assumptions.
The Executive’s Dilemma
Consider an executive who believes that remote work reduces productivity. Without realizing it, they might:
- Highlight every instance of missed deadlines or communication gaps as evidence.
- Dismiss data showing gains in efficiency or employee satisfaction.
- Avoid consulting teams that are thriving remotely.
The result? Decisions driven not by evidence, but by narrative. And once entrenched, these narratives are hard to dislodge.
How It Hurts Decision-Making
- Strategy Becomes Static: Confirmation bias blocks leaders from recognizing when a strategy is no longer working.
- Innovation Stalls: Teams avoid challenging the status quo for fear of being dismissed.
- Risk Is Misjudged: Warnings are downplayed or ignored because they conflict with internal confidence.
- Feedback Loops Break Down: Leaders may surround themselves with “yes people,” cutting off the very feedback they need.
How to Guard Against Confirmation Bias
1. Actively Seek Disconfirming Evidence
Make it a practice to ask: “What would have to be true for the opposite of my belief to be correct?”
Warren Buffett famously asks his team to present the strongest counterarguments before making big decisions.
2. Build a Devil’s Advocate Culture
Institutionalize dissent. Create roles or routines where someone is required to argue the counter-position—especially in major strategic or investment decisions.
3. Use Structured Decision-Making Tools
Force your thinking through frameworks:
- Pre-mortems: Assume the decision failed—why?
- Red Teams: Challenge your plan as if you’re a competitor.
- Checklists: Include prompts for alternative explanations or contradictory data.
4. Invite External Perspectives
Consult people outside your echo chamber. Diversity of thought—across departments, disciplines, or backgrounds—dilutes groupthink and introduces fresh data.
5. Keep a Decision Journal
Document your assumptions, what you expect to happen, and why. Revisit after the fact. You’ll quickly spot where bias clouded your judgment.
Case Study: Netflix vs. Blockbuster
When Netflix proposed a partnership in 2000, Blockbuster laughed them out of the room. Why? Their executives were anchored in the belief that customers preferred the in-store experience and would not adopt a mail-order or streaming model. Their internal data seemed to support that narrative—but only because they ignored signals that challenged their model. Netflix, by contrast, remained data-informed and open to contradiction.
The result? Netflix grew into a $200 billion powerhouse. Blockbuster became a case study in strategic myopia.
The Bottom Line for Executives
Confirmation bias is especially dangerous for high-performing leaders because it often wears the disguise of wisdom. The more confident and experienced you become, the more important it is to double down on intellectual humility.
The best leaders don’t just seek to be right. They seek to be less wrong over time.
As you refine your executive judgment, remember: Clear thinking requires courage—the courage to challenge your own mind.
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Murray Slatter
Strategy, Growth, and Transformation Consultant: Book time to meet with me here!
