Foundational Mental Models for Executive Decision-Making
Most leadership training focuses on forward planning. Set the vision. Plot the strategy. Move step by step toward success. That’s fine—until complexity hits. Inversion Thinking is the different! How?
When you’re leading under pressure, in chaos or ambiguity, forward thinking can actually obscure clarity. That’s when great leaders flip the lens and ask:
“What would failure look like? And how do we avoid it?”
“If this blows up, what went wrong?”
“What don’t I want to happen?”
This is the art of Inversion—the mental model of thinking backward from the outcome you want to avoid. And it’s one of the most underrated tools in the executive playbook.
What Is Inversion?
Inversion means solving a problem by imagining the opposite of what you want, and then working to prevent that outcome.
Instead of asking, “How do we succeed?” you ask:
- “What would guarantee failure?”
- “What must we avoid at all costs?”
- “How would I destroy this if I wanted to?”
“Invert, always invert.”
— Carl Jacobi, German mathematician (and Charlie Munger’s favorite problem-solving quote)
Inversion is Covey’s Habit #2 with teeth. It brings clarity through contrast. It simplifies complexity. And it protects against blind spots.
Why Inversion Works for Executives
Most executives over-focus on upside. It’s natural—we’re trained to chase growth, opportunity, and scale.
But in complex systems (like companies, markets, and human beings), avoiding failure is often more important than chasing brilliance.
Inversion forces you to:
- See risks early.
- Confront denial and hubris.
- Focus on prevention over endless reaction.
In short: it’s a hedge against your own optimism bias.
From the Master CEO’s Desk: What I Tell Future Leaders
“You want to succeed? Great. Now show me how you would fail—step by step.”
When I coach new executives, I don’t just ask for their strategy. I ask for their anti-strategy.
I want them to name the 3–5 ways this plan could fall apart. And then I want them to design the system to block those paths.
Because success is often not about what you do—it’s about what you don’t allow to happen.
Inversion in the Real World
✅ Strategy Planning
Don’t just ask, “How do we win?”
Ask, “How do we lose market share? How do we dilute our edge?”
Then put safeguards in place.
✅ Product Launches
Don’t just say, “How do we drive adoption?”
Ask, “How do we frustrate users? How do we build something no one wants?”
Then fix those failure points.
✅ Team Performance
Don’t just focus on KPIs.
Ask, “How would I wreck team morale? How would I create confusion and apathy?”
Now invert: do the opposite.
Try This: The Inversion Exercise
Prompt: “If we wanted this project/strategy to fail spectacularly, what would we do?”
- Write down the 5–10 most effective ways to guarantee failure.
- Now go back and ask: Are any of these already happening?
- Design pre-emptive moves to block those failure patterns.
You can use this with:
- Board planning sessions
- Risk reviews
- Pre-mortems before major launches
- 1:1 leadership coaching
Pro Tip: Pair Inversion with First Principles
When you combine First Principles Thinking (break it down to the core) with Inversion (reverse it), you gain a complete system:
- What must be true to succeed? → Build it from scratch
- What must never happen to fail? → Build protections around it
This dual-lens is how elite operators make consistently good decisions.
Final Word
Inversion isn’t about pessimism. It’s about clarity.
It gives you edge in a noisy, fast-moving world.
It’s how you solve problems before they exist.
And it’s how you become the kind of leader who doesn’t just build success—but designs against failure.
“You don’t rise to the level of your plans. You fall to the level of your blind spots. Invert to find them.”
Next in the Series: Occam’s Razor: Cutting Through Complexity to Lead with Clarity
You won’t want to miss it.
Missed out on the over all series?
Murray Slatter
Strategy, Growth, and Transformation Consultant: Book time to meet with me here!
