1. How I Discovered Palantir
I was first introduced to Palantir in 2021, shortly after the company went public. At the time, I already had a strong sense of the company’s DNA—having read Zero to One by Peter Thiel, Palantir’s co-founder. I respected Thiel’s thinking around contrarian innovation, defensibility, and enduring impact. So when I heard more about Palantir’s unique mission and saw CEO Alex Karp begin to appear in the public spotlight, I paid close attention.
What I discovered was a business deeply mission-driven, not just in words but in operating structure. Palantir wasn’t just writing code—they were building a new category of applied intelligence software designed to solve problems most others couldn’t touch.
2. The Spark: Purpose at the Core
Palantir first earned its reputation through classified work with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. The company’s software—designed to stitch together and interrogate massive, siloed data systems—played a key role in locating Osama bin Laden, one of the most elusive adversaries in history. That kind of use case isn’t just marketing—it’s a real-world proof point of capability under extreme conditions.
It told me one thing clearly: This is not your average SaaS company.
3. The Shift to Commercial: My Investment Thesis
By late 2021, I observed that Palantir was beginning a deliberate transition—moving from almost exclusively serving government agencies to expanding aggressively into the commercial sector.
Their rollout of the Foundry platform—tailored to enterprise use—and the “bootcamp sales model” (onboarding clients through immersive, engineer-led sprints) showed not only product strength but strategic clarity. These weren’t scattergun sales tactics. This was systems thinking at scale.
I began to build a position with an initial $3,000 investment, while continuing to monitor execution.
4. My Investment Process
As I always do, I started small—testing conviction with capital, then letting deeper research determine further allocation.
Over the past three years, I’ve consistently dollar-cost averaged into Palantir. I now allocate 5% of capital to the company, making it one of my largest positions. Thanks to strong performance—particularly over the past two years—Palantir now represents approximately 15% of my entire portfolio.
Some of my earlier entries have 5x’ed, others 2x’ed, and on average the position is up ~230%.
5. The Flywheel I See
Palantir is building what I call the Enterprise Operating System for Decision Intelligence. Their platforms—Gotham (government intelligence), Foundry (commercial operations), and AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform)—form a cohesive, multi-layered ecosystem that helps organizations:
- Integrate fragmented datasets
- Model and simulate complex operations
- Make decisions at scale, in real time
- Automate with oversight and audibility
It’s not just data analytics—it’s operational transformation.
And their customers are catching on—from aerospace and pharma to energy and logistics.
6. What Makes Them Unique
Palantir’s moat is structural:
- Extremely high switching costs: once integrated, Foundry becomes the digital nervous system of an enterprise.
- Mission-critical utility: used in military operations, pandemic response, supply chain war rooms.
- Cultural defensibility: they do things few others are willing to do—and with a belief system behind them.
- AI-native evolution: AIP is allowing companies to build domain-specific agents atop secure data infrastructure.
This is where I believe Palantir will shine—by providing the bridge between raw AI power and enterprise operational logic.
7. Role in My Portfolio
Palantir sits firmly within my G3 Fund – Transformational Technology. It is, in many ways, a moonshot—but one built on over 20 years of R&D, deep relationships, and compound learning curves.
Despite volatility, I have held and added consistently because the signals continue to affirm the direction:
- Expanding margins
- Commercial revenue growth outpacing government
- Global demand for decision-grade AI infrastructure
8. Total Addressable Market (TAM)
Palantir’s TAM is enormous—and expanding as AI transforms operational workflows.
| Business Vertical | TAM Estimate | Palantir Positioning |
|---|---|---|
| Government Intelligence | $50–75 billion | Deeply entrenched; core customer base |
| Commercial Enterprise AI | $150–250 billion | Rapidly expanding; AIP bootcamp model |
| Defense Systems Integration | $200+ billion | Partner to prime defense contractors |
| Industrial AI Ops (energy, infra) | $100+ billion | Early-stage penetration, high interest |
These are multi-decade opportunities. I believe we’re only in the second or third inning.
9. What I’m Watching
I continue to monitor:
- Revenue mix shift between government and commercial
- Growth of AIP and AI agent libraries
- Gross margins and R&D spend efficiency
- International customer wins, especially in Europe and Asia
- Competitive response from Microsoft, Snowflake, and Oracle
10. What Would Break My Thesis
My thesis would be challenged if:
- Palantir fails to scale its commercial business
- Customer onboarding slows due to complexity or pricing
- AI-native competitors outflank their architecture
- The company becomes overly reliant on government work
At this stage, none of these threats seem imminent. Execution risk is real—but so is the exponential upside.
Final Reflection
Palantir is not a traditional tech company. It’s a systems integrator of intelligence, embedding itself into the machinery of modern civilization—across war rooms, hospitals, and corporate boardrooms.
If my children ever ask why I went so big on Palantir, I’ll say: “Because they weren’t just building software—they were building the architecture of decision-making in the 21st century.”
