Certainty is a luxury seldom afforded to those in the business of navigating geopolitical tides. Over the past few months, the reimposition and radical expansion of U.S. tariffs under President Trump has brought into sharp relief not only the volatility of macroeconomic policy but also a broader shift in the post-WWII global order.
“When people talk about certainty, I get nervous.” — Howard Marks
These moves are not merely about taxes on imports—they are signals, levers, and, perhaps most importantly, instruments of control.
1. Tariffs as an Instrument of Imperial Authority
As Walter Russell Mead and Niall Ferguson have both emphasized in recent reflections, Trump’s tariff policy is less about traditional trade theory and more about reshaping global dependencies. We are witnessing a return of economic nationalism, not as reactionary politics, but as a calculated consolidation of power.
- Tariffs are now discretionary, personal, and transactional. Trump has asserted unilateral control over both trade and security guarantees (e.g., NATO), conditioning access on alignment with his administration’s priorities.
- In effect, this renders U.S. trade policy a political currency, akin to Roosevelt’s wartime emergency powers.
Implication for leaders: Global businesses are entering a landscape where trade exposure must be viewed through the lens of political alignment, not just market access.
2. Lawrence Summers: A Caution from the Center
Summers, one of the most enduring voices of centrist economic orthodoxy, warns that tariffs are inflationary, regressive, and ineffective. He sees the Trump doctrine as dangerously populist:
- “Trade wars aren’t won. They’re survived.”
- Summers argues that the obsession with trade deficits and bilateral “wins” reflects a deep misunderstanding of macroeconomic fundamentals.
- He points out that tariffs are taxes on Americans, and their long-term effect is to raise input costs, depress real wages, and stifle productivity.
Implication for leaders: Tariffs will increasingly act as a hidden tax on global supply chains. Strategic procurement, commodity hedging, and local re-shoring are no longer optional—they’re imperative.
3. Ferguson’s Warning: This Is Not Isolationism—It’s Empire
Sir Niall Ferguson frames the Trump doctrine not as withdrawal, but as an assertion of imperial prerogative. In this view:
- Trump’s strategy mimics McKinley-era protectionism and Nixonian realpolitik.
- The goal is not to rebuild the liberal order, but to replace it with a transactional, bilateral system based on American leverage.
- Trump sees tariffs not just as revenue or protection, but as a bargaining chip to rewire alliances—notably to decouple supply chains from China.
Ferguson also points to Trump’s unpredictability as both strategic risk and strategic advantage. As China contemplates Taiwan, this ambiguity may deter or invite conflict.
Implication for leaders: Risk in the Indo-Pacific is rising. Board-level exposure to semiconductors, rare earths, or Asia-linked logistics needs to be reassessed quarterly—not annually.
4. Taiwan: The Cuban Missile Crisis of the AI Era
Across all conversations—Summers, Mead, Ferguson—Taiwan emerges as the geopolitical fault line. The strategic centrality of TSMC in the AI and semiconductor race means that Taiwan is no longer just a sovereignty issue; it is the linchpin of technological supremacy.
Should Taiwan fall under Chinese control:
- U.S. primacy in Asia would be compromised
- Global access to cutting-edge chip technology would be endangered
- Japan, South Korea, and Australia would be forced to recalculate their alignments
Implication for leaders: Geopolitical disruption in Taiwan would be the single most material black swan risk to global supply chains and enterprise technology architecture over the next decade.
5. Decoupling, Realignment, and the End of the Old Order
Trump’s tariffs are part of a broader worldview—one that sees the old, rules-based international order as exhausted. The WTO is irrelevant. Multilateralism is suspect. National sovereignty is resurgent.
Mead frames it succinctly: this is not a correction; this is a re-foundation. And while the costs of transition are high, the costs of stagnation, as Trump’s advisors argue, are existential: opioid epidemics, hollowed-out towns, and civilizational malaise.
Implication for leaders: Your strategic horizon must now incorporate the decline of global uniformity. Resilience will come not from diversification alone, but from alignment, intelligence, and velocity.
Final Reflection: Navigating a Fragmented Future
In the voice of Howard Marks, I’ll close with this:
“When people believe that something is a sure thing, most of the time, it’s already priced in. But when no one knows where it’s headed, there’s still room for strategy.”
We’re in one of those uncertain moments. The tectonic plates are shifting. The institutions that defined the post-war order—rules, alliances, trading blocs—are giving way to spheres, deals, and detours.
The winners will be those who think probabilistically, act decisively, and invest ahead of the pivot
