{"id":5916,"date":"2025-08-31T10:30:37","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T00:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5916"},"modified":"2025-08-31T10:30:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T00:30:40","slug":"what-i-am-investing-in-and-why-toast-nyse-tost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5916","title":{"rendered":"What I Am Investing In and Why: Toast (NYSE: TOST)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>A New Bet on Restaurant Tech\u2014With Eyes Wide Open<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Every so often, a company emerges that reminds me of one I\u2019ve seen before\u2014offering similar value, facing similar hurdles, and potentially riding a similar wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toast feels a lot like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in 2017, I bought Square\u2014now Block (SQ)\u2014on the back of its elegant software, hardware integration, and ability to simplify financial infrastructure for small businesses. I sold in 2023 after a strong run and a shift in my capital allocation strategy. But the lessons stuck with me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So when I came across a recent podcast by a tech journalist I\u2019ve followed for years, Toast caught my attention. What stood out wasn\u2019t just their pitch\u2014but the deep integration and scope of their platform for one of the most notoriously difficult small business verticals: restaurants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>From Raw Ingredient to Receipt: A Full-Stack Restaurant OS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toast offers a soup-to-nuts solution for restaurant operators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What Square did for mobile merchants, Toast is doing for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Caf\u00e9s,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Diners,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>QSR chains,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fine dining,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And everything in between.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Their stack includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Point of Sale (POS)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Menu &amp; inventory management<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Order &amp; table management<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Loyalty &amp; marketing tools<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Payroll &amp; HR<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Payments &amp; lending infrastructure<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: they\u2019ve built an operating system for the hospitality sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s impressive is the level of integration. From the moment a caf\u00e9 orders raw ingredients to when a meal hits the table and is paid for, Toast tracks it, optimizes it, and simplifies it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Network Effect Is Real\u2014But Fragile<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toast\u2019s flywheel is built on interconnectedness:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The more restaurants join,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The more data Toast gathers,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The better it can optimize pricing, workflows, and service offerings,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Which leads to greater customer stickiness and upsell potential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toast Payroll integrates with Shift Management.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Loyalty tools feed back into POS transaction data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kitchen Display Systems improve throughput and reduce wait times.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real-time ingredient tracking supports dynamic menu pricing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s elegant. It\u2019s scalable. It\u2019s clearly solving headache-level problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Risk: Churn and the Harsh Economics of Hospitality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s where I pump the brakes a little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The restaurant industry is notoriously fragile:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Average lifespan of a new restaurant: 5\u20137 years<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High fixed costs, low margins<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vulnerability to economic downturns and seasonal cycles<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While Toast has expanded into mid-market and multi-site operations, a substantial portion of its customer base is still SMBs\u2014and SMBs in food service are among the most volatile in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That translates to high churn risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve followed the churn numbers closely over the past few quarters. While Toast has shown resilience, it still must constantly acquire new restaurants just to stay flat, let alone grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s a hard treadmill to run forever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why I\u2019m Still Investing\u2014Cautiously<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite those headwinds, I\u2019ve begun making small incremental purchases in Toast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The product is strong.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The vertical is large and underserved.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The company is improving operating leverage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I\u2019ve seen this kind of early network-effect SaaS business before\u2014and it often takes off before the broader market notices.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m positioning Toast in my G2 Fund (Future Leaders) bucket\u2014recognizing its path to profitability isn\u2019t guaranteed, but also that the upside is meaningful if they solve the churn puzzle and deepen their relationships with multi-location operators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not a core position yet. But it\u2019s on my radar\u2014and on my buy list when valuations are compelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Final Thought<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toast may not be the next Square.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it doesn\u2019t have to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If it continues to execute, manages churn intelligently, and grows with the digitization wave sweeping through food service, it could carve out a very profitable niche in one of the largest\u2014and least digitized\u2014consumer sectors in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, I\u2019m buying\u2014eyes open, thesis in hand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A New Bet on Restaurant Tech\u2014With Eyes Wide Open Every so often, a company emerges that reminds me of one I\u2019ve seen before\u2014offering similar value, facing similar hurdles, and potentially riding a similar wave. Toast feels a lot like that. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5954,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","clearfix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What I Am Investing In and Why: Toast (NYSE: TOST) - Murray Slatter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5916\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What I Am Investing In and Why: Toast (NYSE: TOST) - Murray Slatter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A New Bet on Restaurant Tech\u2014With Eyes Wide Open Every so often, a company emerges that reminds me of one I\u2019ve seen before\u2014offering similar value, facing similar hurdles, and potentially riding a similar wave. 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How I Discovered AppLovin I first came across AppLovin through a Motley Fool podcast, where they were reviewing the company\u2019s earnings call and unpacking the performance of its advertising technology platform. 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