{"id":5315,"date":"2025-06-04T20:39:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T10:39:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315"},"modified":"2025-06-05T11:04:39","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T01:04:39","slug":"%f0%9f%a7%a0-probabilistic-thinking-how-the-best-ceos-make-decisions-under-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315","title":{"rendered":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Foundational Mental Models for Executive Decision-Making <\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Let me tell you a truth most CEOs avoid:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s why average executives chase control, while great CEOs master <strong>probabilistic thinking<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When you can no longer rely on guarantees, you must start relying on <strong>likelihoods<\/strong>. Not what will happen\u2014but what might, and with what odds. This is how top decision-makers lead under ambiguity, volatility, and pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Is Probabilistic Thinking?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Probabilistic Thinking means making decisions by estimating the <strong>likelihood of various outcomes<\/strong>, not relying on binary thinking (\u201cright vs wrong\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s the difference between asking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u274c\u201cWill this strategy succeed?\u201d <br>and asking:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2705\u201cWhat\u2019s the probability of success, and what are the risks if it doesn\u2019t?\u201d <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIn complex environments, certainty is a trap. You win by thinking in odds.\u201d<br>\u2014 Murray Slatter<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Most Executives Struggle with This<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Most leaders were trained in deterministic environments\u2014school exams, fixed rules, budgets, forecasts. You were taught to get <em>the right answer<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But real life at the C-suite level doesn\u2019t work that way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Markets shift.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Competitors adapt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Customers behave irrationally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Black swans appear without warning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The best CEOs don\u2019t pretend to know the future. They get comfortable making big bets <em>without certainty<\/em>\u2014because they\u2019ve built a framework for thinking in <strong>probabilities<\/strong> and managing <strong>asymmetric risk<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">From the Desk of a Master CEO: How I Coach for Probabilistic Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When I coach rising leaders, I often say:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cYour job isn\u2019t to be right. Your job is to make good bets and survive the ones you don\u2019t win.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Thinking in probabilities shifts your focus from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Certainty \u2192 <strong>Range of outcomes<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Being right \u2192 <strong>Being prepared<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Short-term wins \u2192 <strong>Long-term expected value<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Probabilistic Thinking in Action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2705 Example 1: Strategic Partnerships<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Old thinking<\/strong>: \u201cThis partnership will grow revenue.\u201d<br><strong>Better thinking<\/strong>: \u201cThere\u2019s a 60% chance of material uplift in 12 months, with a 30% chance of distraction, and a 10% chance of legal\/regulatory misalignment. Do the odds justify the investment?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2705 Example 2: Product Launches<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Old thinking<\/strong>: \u201cThis will be our next big success.\u201d<br><strong>Better thinking<\/strong>: \u201cBased on past launches, we have a 25% chance of breakout, 50% chance of breakeven, 25% chance of loss. How does that fit our portfolio strategy?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2705 Example 3: Talent Hires<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Old thinking<\/strong>: \u201cShe\u2019s the perfect fit.\u201d<br><strong>Better thinking<\/strong>: \u201cWe believe there\u2019s an 80% chance she thrives in this role. What contingency plan exists for the 20%?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to Build Probabilistic Thinking into Your Leadership Style<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde0 1. Estimate Likelihoods (Even Roughly)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You don\u2019t need to be a statistician. You just need to ask:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201cWhat\u2019s the likelihood this works out as planned?\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cWhat\u2019s the worst-case and best-case scenario?\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cWhat\u2019s the expected value if we run this 10 times?\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde0 2. Avoid Binary Traps<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Don\u2019t default to Yes\/No decisions. Use phrases like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201cHigh probability of mild upside.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cLow probability of massive upside.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cUncertain outcome with severe downside.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde0 3. Size Your Bets Accordingly<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bet small on high-risk, low-confidence ideas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bet big when the downside is limited and upside is large.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Never bet the company on a 50\/50 call.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Decision Tool: The Probabilistic Thinking Grid<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Option<\/th><th>Likelihood of Success<\/th><th>Upside<\/th><th>Downside<\/th><th>Decision Strategy<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A<\/td><td>80%<\/td><td>Medium<\/td><td>Low<\/td><td>Execute aggressively<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>B<\/td><td>40%<\/td><td>High<\/td><td>Medium<\/td><td>Pilot + Monitor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C<\/td><td>10%<\/td><td>Huge<\/td><td>High<\/td><td>Venture capital model (optionality play)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Use this grid with your executive team to force probabilistic discussion. Even rough numbers can change the conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Thought Experiment: Betting on the Future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ask your team:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIf you had to bet your own money on this decision\u2014knowing only the odds we\u2019ve estimated\u2014how much would you wager?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>This reframes abstract conversations into <strong>risk-calibrated leadership<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Thought: The Power of Expected Value Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When you start thinking probabilistically:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>You stop seeking perfect information.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>You embrace <em>reversible decisions<\/em> more easily.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>You become more resilient when outcomes don\u2019t go your way.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe best CEOs don\u2019t win every time.<br>They win often enough, and they never bet the company when the odds are unclear.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s the mindset you need to build sustainable, adaptive leadership in an uncertain world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next in the Series<\/strong>: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5324\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Inversion: Solving Problems by Thinking Backwards<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Missed out on the <a href=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5292\">over all series<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Murray Slatter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strategy, Growth, and Transformation Consultant: <a href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/bookwithme\/user\/ffef0aaaf9ce4fa9bc29e062d1cb0d0f@qfactor.com.au?anonymous&amp;ep=bwmEmailSignature\">Book time to meet with me here!<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Signup for the Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-leadin-hubspot-form-block\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.hsFormsOnReady = window.hsFormsOnReady || [];\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\twindow.hsFormsOnReady.push(()=>{\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\thbspt.forms.create({\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tportalId: 24391455,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tformId: \"03fd50b1-a049-4bdb-b064-cff39a5f75dd\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget: \"#hbspt-form-1779091839000-9577693234\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tregion: \"na1\",\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t})});\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hbspt-form\" id=\"hbspt-form-1779091839000-9577693234\"><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Foundational Mental Models for Executive Decision-Making Let me tell you a truth most CEOs avoid: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything. That\u2019s why average executives chase control, while great [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","clearfix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Murray Slatter\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"539\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Murray Slatter\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Murray Slatter\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Murray Slatter\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5\"},\"headline\":\"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315\"},\"wordCount\":734,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315\",\"name\":\"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5\"},\"description\":\"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1\",\"width\":900,\"height\":539},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?p=5315#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/\",\"name\":\"Murray Slatter\",\"description\":\"Empowering Good teams to be Great!\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5\",\"name\":\"Murray Slatter\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Murray Slatter\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/murrayslatter.me\\\/?author=2\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter","description":"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter","og_description":"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.","og_url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315","og_site_name":"Murray Slatter","article_published_time":"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00","og_image":[{"width":900,"height":539,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Murray Slatter","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Murray Slatter","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315"},"author":{"name":"Murray Slatter","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/#\/schema\/person\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5"},"headline":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty","datePublished":"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00","dateModified":"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315"},"wordCount":734,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1","inLanguage":"en","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315","url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315","name":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty - Murray Slatter","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1","datePublished":"2025-06-04T10:39:23+00:00","dateModified":"2025-06-05T01:04:39+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/#\/schema\/person\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5"},"description":"Problaistic Thinking: The higher up you go, the less certainty you\u2019ll have\u2014and the more your decisions will shape everything.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1","width":900,"height":539},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5315#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\ud83e\udde0 Probabilistic Thinking: How the Best CEOs Make Decisions Under Uncertainty"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/#website","url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/","name":"Murray Slatter","description":"Empowering Good teams to be Great!","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/#\/schema\/person\/9774d7f727e6b917f43267614574f6d5","name":"Murray Slatter","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8aa0f1751d211918ccc2037a8b3ce22431cec7bef7edf9c993cee70e20717c88?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Murray Slatter"},"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?author=2"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Problistic-Thinking.png?fit=900%2C539&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5314,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5314","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":0},"title":"\ud83e\udde0 Second-Order Thinking: The Strategic Superpower of Elite CEOs","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"June 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Foundational Mental Models for Executive Decision-Making In leadership, the greatest danger isn\u2019t ignorance\u2014it\u2019s shallow thinking disguised as decisiveness. Too many executives are rewarded for reacting fast, delivering results this quarter, or solving the symptom in front of them. But true strategic leaders don\u2019t just ask, \u201cWhat happens next?\u201d They ask,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Second-Order-Thinking.png?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Second-Order-Thinking.png?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Second-Order-Thinking.png?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Second-Order-Thinking.png?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Second-Order-Thinking.png?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5378,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5378","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":1},"title":"Expected Value","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"June 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Making Smarter Decisions by Quantifying Outcomes In business, investing, and life, we are constantly faced with uncertainty. Should we launch a new product? Should we expand to a new market? Should we take a new role or project? These decisions carry various possible outcomes, each with its own potential upside\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Expected-Value.jpg?fit=1024%2C461&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Expected-Value.jpg?fit=1024%2C461&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Expected-Value.jpg?fit=1024%2C461&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Expected-Value.jpg?fit=1024%2C461&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3248,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=3248","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":2},"title":"Decoding Prospect Theory: A Game-Changer for Decision-Makers","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"April 9, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In the intricate world of business and finance, decision-making stands as the linchpin of success. Understanding the psychological underpinnings of our choices has become increasingly vital, especially in an era marked by volatility and uncertainty. This is where Prospect Theory, a seminal work by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Business Improvement&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Business Improvement","link":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Daniel-Kahneman.png?fit=902%2C508&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Daniel-Kahneman.png?fit=902%2C508&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Daniel-Kahneman.png?fit=902%2C508&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Daniel-Kahneman.png?fit=902%2C508&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5292,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5292","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":3},"title":"Mental Models for Executives : Series &amp; Coaching","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"May 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A Playbook for Thinking Clearly at C-Level \u201cWhen the stakes are high and the variables messy, strategy is less about having the right answers than using the right lenses.\u201d Welcome to The Executive Mental Models Series\u2014a blog-cum-training journey designed to weaponise clear thinking for CEOs, founders, and rising C-suite leaders.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mental-Models.png?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mental-Models.png?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mental-Models.png?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mental-Models.png?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mental-Models.png?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5294,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5294","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":4},"title":"How First Principles Thinking Transforms Executive Judgment","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"June 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cDon\u2019t reason by analogy. Reason from the ground up.\u201d \u2014 Elon Musk Most executives unknowingly build their decision-making on borrowed assumptions\u2014best practices, benchmarks, and industry norms. But when the landscape shifts or when you\u2019re called to lead transformation, inherited wisdom becomes an anchor, not a sail. Enter First Principles Thinking\u2014the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Grace-Hopper.png?fit=1200%2C650&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Grace-Hopper.png?fit=1200%2C650&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Grace-Hopper.png?fit=1200%2C650&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Grace-Hopper.png?fit=1200%2C650&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Grace-Hopper.png?fit=1200%2C650&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5308,"url":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5308","url_meta":{"origin":5315,"position":5},"title":"\ud83e\udde0 First Principles Thinking: The CEO&#8217;s Superpower","author":"Murray Slatter","date":"June 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Foundational Mental Models for Executive Decision-Making As an engineer by training and a data scientist by profession, I used to believe First Principles Thinking was universal. It felt intuitive\u2014obvious, even. But after years of leading teams, advising executives, and working across boardrooms, I\u2019ve discovered it\u2019s anything but common. In fact,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/First-Principals.png?fit=798%2C449&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/First-Principals.png?fit=798%2C449&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/First-Principals.png?fit=798%2C449&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/murrayslatter.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/First-Principals.png?fit=798%2C449&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5315"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5315\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5334,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5315\/revisions\/5334"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}