{"id":5282,"date":"2025-05-30T08:57:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T22:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5282"},"modified":"2025-05-30T08:57:42","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T22:57:42","slug":"credit-cycles-long-run-and-short-runsurfing-the-super-cycles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=5282","title":{"rendered":"Credit Cycles, Long Run and Short RunSurfing the Super-Cycles"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

From Kondratiev\u2019s Long Waves to Ray Dalio\u2019s Big Debt CycleCredit Cycles, Long Run and Short Run<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why study century-spanning economic tides at all?<\/em>
Because the very forces that lift our portfolios in the good times are the same ones that can strand them on the reef when the water rushes out. Two of the most influential attempts to map those tides come from a little-known Soviet economist of the 1920s, Nikolai D. Kondratiev<\/strong>, and from modern-day macro sage Ray Dalio<\/strong>. Below is a primer you can lift straight into your blog \u2014 or riff on to suit your own voice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 100 year analysis of Credit cycle Masters who have studied 500 years of credit cycles<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Background – Why Study Kondratiev and Dalio<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kondratiev <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Kondratiev was working in the Soviet Union\u2019s brief NEP interlude (1921-28)<\/strong>\u2014a hybrid economy where small private markets re-emerged but the State Bank\u2019s gold-backed chervonets<\/em><\/strong> anchored money and credit, and where dissenting economic hypotheses could (and ultimately did) get a scholar arrested and executed during Stalin\u2019s purges in 1938.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dalio<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Dalio, by contrast, interprets cycles inside a fiat-currency, highly financialised United States<\/strong> whose independent Federal Reserve juggles a dual mandate, wields tools such as near-zero policy rates and multi-trillion-dollar quantitative easing, and operates at the centre of the world\u2019s reserve-currency system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where Kondratiev\u2019s long-wave evidence was scraped from sparse price and output series under a politically precarious command economy, Dalio analyses oceans of real-time market data in a transparent, rules-based regulatory environment\u2014yet warns that today\u2019s $36 trillion federal debt can still produce 1930s-style stress.The Economic Times<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the two thinkers probe similar generational rhythms, but they do so under monetary regimes and political constraints that could hardly be more different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1 | Kondratiev and the 50-Year \u201cLong Wave\u201d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

| Core insight | An industrial-capitalist economy doesn\u2019t just breathe in 7- to 10-year business cycles; it inhales and exhales in giant 40- to 60-year swells that touch prices, interest rates, wages, trade and innovation all at once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n