This is my second round with Bitcoin. I first took a position in 2016 when the price was around $1,000 per coin, which I bought via a digital wallet. I didn\u2019t hold a deep conviction then\u2014but I had a hunch. A hunch based on first-principles research into how Bitcoin works, what it represents, and the implications of digital scarcity. I used a digital wallet for custody and later leveraged Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to increase my exposure. I sold out in December 2017 when Bitcoin approached $12,000\u2014not because of a failed investment thesis, but because it appeared that the primary use case at the time was for illicit trade. I didn\u2019t want to be associated with that narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fast forward to today, and I\u2019ve re-entered\u2014not through self-custody, but via the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), a regulated, Bitcoin-only fund. My exposure here is modest\u2014an initial $3,000 \u201ctoe-in-the-water\u201d position\u2014but this is how I build conviction: slowly, with skin in the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. The Spark: Andrew Page\u2019s Conviction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n What drew me back to Bitcoin wasn\u2019t hype. It was hearing Andrew Page from Strawman.com articulate his view of Bitcoin as a future mechanism for international trade settlement\u2014particularly for regions or sovereigns seeking alternatives to U.S. dollar hegemony. His conviction was clear. I respected it\u2014even if I didn\u2019t share it fully. As Page wisely noted, \u201cYou can borrow someone\u2019s idea, but you can\u2019t buy their conviction.\u201d Still, his framing rekindled my interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. My Investigative Process<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I revisited Bitcoin\u2019s underlying principles and current data. I looked at institutional adoption trends, read recent market commentary, and monitored the development of Layer 2 protocols like the Lightning Network\u2014which enable faster, low-cost transactions. I reviewed metrics on transaction types and data showing that the percentage of Bitcoin activity associated with criminal usage has declined dramatically. Today, more settlements are happening above board, and Bitcoin is finding product-market fit with legal, institutional actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4. What I Like & My Evolving Thesis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bitcoin\u2019s fixed supply of 21 million coins\u2014of which fewer than 18 million are realistically accessible due to lost keys and wallets\u2014creates a digital scarcity unmatched in the fiat world. That scarcity gives it gold-like qualities, but in a format natively digital and borderless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What appeals to me now is not just the inflation hedge narrative\u2014but the emerging utility: cross-border transactions, settlement rails, and programmable value exchange. We\u2019re witnessing Bitcoin shift from a speculative asset to digital infrastructure. Think of it like TCP\/IP for value\u2014not just a store of wealth but a foundational layer in the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5. Role in My Portfolio<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This investment sits in my G3 Fund \u2013 Transformational Technology. It\u2019s not about immediate gains; it\u2019s about asymmetric optionality. IBIT allows me to gain exposure without the custody risk or regulatory uncertainty of managing coins directly. It also provides liquidity and simplicity\u2014two characteristics I value for early-stage positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 6. Leadership \u2013 BlackRock\u2019s Involvement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n BlackRock\u2019s decision to enter the space changes the game. As the world\u2019s largest asset manager, they don\u2019t make casual moves. Their involvement lends institutional legitimacy, regulatory rigor, and a long-term horizon. I may not be bullish on every BlackRock product, but IBIT benefits from serious stewardship and operational credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 7. Public Company Experience<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n BlackRock\u2019s track record as a fiduciary and ETF pioneer gives me confidence. They understand liquidity management, compliance, and fund structuring better than most. I\u2019m not relying on a startup custodian here\u2014this is as blue-chip as it gets for crypto exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 8. Performance Against My Preferred Metrics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This investment doesn\u2019t qualify for a \u201cRule of 40\u201d assessment, given it\u2019s a passive asset, not an operating company. However, I track:<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, IBIT has performed exactly as expected: low-fee, direct, no drama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 9. What I\u2019m Watching For<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m watching for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n If these trends continue, I will likely scale in with larger tranches over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 10. What Would Break My Thesis (The Antithesis)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n My position is not without risks. What would cause me to reverse or exit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n For now, none of those risk flags are active\u2014but they remain top of mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Final Reflection<\/p>\n\n\n\n This journal entry is more than just a snapshot of an investment. It\u2019s a live case study in asymmetric thinking, optionality, and conviction-building. My kids may one day ask why I placed a small bet on a strange internet coin. This is the answer: I believed it had the potential to reshape value transfer globally\u2014and I wanted skin in the game to learn in real time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This is my second round with Bitcoin. I first took a position in 2016 when the price was around $1,000 per coin, which I bought via a digital wallet. I didn\u2019t hold a deep conviction then\u2014but I had a hunch. 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