{"id":422,"date":"2011-10-29T05:53:59","date_gmt":"2011-10-29T05:53:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.q3ed.com\/?p=422"},"modified":"2023-09-04T21:46:34","modified_gmt":"2023-09-04T21:46:34","slug":"economical-cycles-pointing-down-over-the-next-few-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murrayslatter.me\/?p=422","title":{"rendered":"Economical cycles – Pointing down over the next few years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Economical cycles and demographics point down over the next few years.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Demographic trends<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In my Global Forecast published in Financial Sense 21st of August 2009, I pointed out that the spending wave for the US and Europe (incl. Eastern Europe) has topped relative to the rest of the world. The peak was around 2007-2008 and the trend side ways, if not down until 2024-2025.
In this article I analyse major economical cycles and show how they fit into the declining demographics in the western part of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kondratieff Cycle.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was the father of applying cyclical activity to economics in modern times. In his book “The Major Economic Cycles” published in 1925 he identified economical long waves in western countries. According to Kondratieff, capitalist societies rise in long waves of approx. 50-60 years. Each cycle consists of three phases: expansion, stagnation, and recession. In his theory, a new cycle arises from the ashes of the previous cycle and thus the process repeats itself. His conclusion of a new rise in the capitalist economies was not appreciated by Stalin and therefore in 1928 he was dismissed from his post as the director of the Study of Business Activity institute in Russia. Later he was sentenced to hard labour and finally received the death penalty in 1938.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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